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How random are FOBT's, no really? - Bookies Slots and Roulette - Stop and Step

How random are FOBT's, no really?


Stormy
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I know they are random in as much as you can't tell if you are going to win or lose when you start a session. Random should mean every spin should be random (the same chance every time)? Talking to other players in my local bookies almost everybody agrees the more you lose in a session the meaner fobt's get. I know when I go to a bricks and mortar casino luck can turn in a second. Many times I have turned a bad night into a great night in the last half an hour. That never seems to be the case with fobt's, I just turn a loss into a bigger loss the longer the session goes on.

But after 10 years of playing them I am certain they do seem to follow patterns. For instance:

I know if put £20 in and don't get a win or say £40 and hardly get a win or tease, it is nearly always going to be a bad session on that machine.

If I get an early bonus up it often will not pay much.

If I play my favourite slots (Black Knight, Magpie Mayham, 777 Burn'em Up) on £2 stakes, I am more likely to get a decent bonus in after I have lost £50-£100, no matter what slot I have been playing. So playing from cold it normally takes £50-100 of loses for Magpie Mayham to get first bonus in, but it doesn't matter which slot I have previously lost that cash on during the session.

If I am not getting bonus teases not much chance of getting a bonus in.

I am also coming to the conclusion that once the fobt slot awards a bonus, the bonus itself is not random. I can sort of tell after a couple of spins if the bonus is going to be good or bad. i.e. a bonus starting badly does not suddenly start spinning in big wins late on.

Any views, or am I overthinking this?

Edited by Stormy
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5 hours ago, Stormy said:

Any views, or am I overthinking this?

You're over thinking it. I've heard so many different theories over the years, most were from the days when roulette was played a lot, but here's just a few from slots and roulette: 

  • The terminals are linked across the country/area/town/shop and will pay or take depending on how much the other terminals have paid. 
  • Roulette is due a number/gives a number based on the last spin; 'hey mate, if 11 comes in, 13 comes in straight after'. My favourite 'roulette used to give me zeros when it first came out, but they've changed it now'. 
  • 'It doesn't matter what slot you play, if it wants to pay it will'. 

In truth, a random slot will be random according to the maths it has been programmed with for that particular game, it will not be spread across any other games, and it will be the same odds on each spin. A jackpot rolling in might be 50,000/1 or 5000/1, but that will be the same for each spin. They don't need to rig it or cheat, the odds are in their favour, and with so many terminals being played every single day, the (often) 8% advantage adds up to a lot.

5 hours ago, Stormy said:

I am also coming to the conclusion that once the fobt slot awards a bonus, the bonus itself is not random. I can sort of tell after a couple of spins if the bonus is going to be good or bad. i.e. a bonus starting badly does not suddenly start spinning in big wins late on.

That depends on the game you are playing, most bonuses are pre-determined but awarded randomly. Think of Road to Riches on Rainbow Riches, that is clearly pre-determined as it can never award below a certain amount. Reels of Gold free spins are random, but worked out so a long-term average each spin has a value. Five spins might pay a jackpot, or 100 spins might just pay the jackpot, but long-term 50 spins will pay a jackpot, making each spin have an average long-term value of £10. (Theoretical value, my maths may be wrong).

To confuse things, there are some compensated slots where the odds vary depending on past results. There aren't too many compensated slots on the FOBT's, but there are a couple. Pressing the help screen will tell you the RTP and whether it is random or compensated. All community slots are compensated.

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Thanks Skippy, it's rare for a programmer to write in such detail. There's not many places in the world that have compensated slots, I think it's just the UK, Amsterdam and Germany, with the most in the UK.

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The human brain is programmed to try and find patterns when they don't necessarily exist. I think the fobts definitely use this to their advantage which I guess is why some losing spins appear as nearly a big win, or nearly a bonus. It encourages you to keep playing and keep pumping money through, as it's taking on average 8p from every pound.

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That article is an interesting read thx. So if a compensated slot appears to be near the top of its range (i.e regularly offering wins) is it worth continuously gambling for the jackpot to try and eventually force it?

As I don't play online it sounds like I should find decent arcades rather than visit my local bookies as they RTP's will likely be slightly better. What I am looking for is a bit of entertainment a couple of times a week without destroying my balance.

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Crisp man is exactly right we do look for patterns that are not there.

Well I have a theory that although they can't reduce the RTP they can increase it. So to entice players to change what they are playing which in turn stops them getting bored and wandering off they increase the RTP on new slots. That's my theory. When Goonies and Ted were new online x3 scatter features came in so easily, now a x3 scatter feature has like x10 teases before it comes in.

They pay a bit and then reap the reward for months until we eventually drift off to play another slot and...  "whhheyy hey this is paying...I'll play this now....." the circle continues

 

 

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  • 2 months later...
  • 3 months later...

15 min session in bookies today (first time for more than four months); more Corals employees than punters! Played my favourite Black Knight £2 spins and was delighted to get bonus up within £40, paid a paltry £24, typical for an early bonus. Got another bonus soon after and paid £21. Two of the worst bonuses I have ever seen on that slot and the first time no expanding reels; how disappointing.

I think I will wait until July if the bonuses are going to pay that low.

 

Edited by Stormy
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Another 15 min session in Corals today on Back Knight £2 spins. Managed to get the the bonus up four times including one on occasion four scatters. Once again expanding knight MIA and bonus wins were £24, £10, £66 and £14. So that is six bonuses since latest lockdown and the worst run of poor bonuses I have seen over 10 years of playing Black Knight.

That's it, no point in playing if Corals have dialled down the wins. Predictable really.

Edited by Stormy
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I've played over three days this week;

Tuesday £100 down in Hills on centurian and £100 down in coral on Black Knight multiplayer. Wednesday £100 down in Coral on black Knight and another £100 down on centurion in Hills. Yesterday I went with Napoleon at Hills and got a solider and 3 wilds on the 4th press for Jackpot.  Am looking forward to the Arcades opening again, and hopefully having a coffee and not having to watch the clock.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I stopped for a couple of weeks. Just been for second jab and nipped into Corals. Won £308 Barkin Mad swapped to the other other FOBT and won £406 on Black Knight. Funny how it goes. I've worked out I'm about £500 up on FOBT's since lockdown nearly five months ago. Maybe I will restrict myself to 15 mins in the future. I rarely get lucky if an FOBT starts badly chasing a loss anyway.

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