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I’m looking to invest some of next months wages on a bet for leaving the EU

I don’t no much about politics what bet do people recommend?437D7F90-613F-45A6-9DF1-AD9162C8D283.thumb.png.50d5996a0cbb4a519d178d5ff1d60dd3.png

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Going by current political upheavals I think option two is possible but leaving with no deal at Evs is an absolute stick on IF it was simply that we would leave before 1 November as the PM had made it pretty clear we’re leaving one way or the other BUT if you lose the bet if we leave with a deal it’s horrible value.

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Another referendum this year is a virtual impossibility.

 

The law states a minimum 10 week campaigning. The Electoral commission also has to test the questionafter it has been decided by Parliament. They'd have to start today and still wouldn't have time.

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No deal on 31st is a good bet in my opinion, but there's a lot of elected politicians who don't like democracy. I'd bet on no deal, but not too much.

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2 hours ago, DaveM said:

Another referendum this year is a virtual impossibility.

 

The law states a minimum 10 week campaigning. The Electoral commission also has to test the questionafter it has been decided by Parliament. They'd have to start today and still wouldn't have time.

Thats why it’s 16/1

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56 minutes ago, StopandStep said:

No deal on 31st is a good bet in my opinion, but there's a lot of elected politicians who don't like democracy. I'd bet on no deal, but not too much.

I think it’s a nasty bet tho, if we leave with a deal you lose. Deal is still the government preferred option.

theres three runners in that bet

dont leave 

leave with deal

leave with no deal

they’re offering 1/1 on a 2/1 shot! And all three options are distinctly possible, on reflection it’s a terrible bet from a “value” perspective 

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To put the above bet in perspective here’s the betfair exchange odds on the straight will we or won’t we leave two runner race...

which is the better bet?

1DFB3DD3-B0AE-4CE2-9BEA-6AD5594D3BD2.jpeg

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1 hour ago, TheKingInTheNorth said:

Thats why it’s 16/1

Nah. Its a 16/1 to lure the peoplewwho will bet on anything without investigating likelihood. Its a 10,000/1 shot in true odds. Parliament isn't sitting. It's 19 weeks to 31 December. It's an absolute minimum legal timeframe of 10 weeks campaigning. There is no way in the world it would be between Christmas and New Year so that's another week lost

So that gives 8 weeks for Parliament to be recalled, agree that another referendum will happen, agree the question, and, have it approved by the Electoral Commission. And that 8 weeks assumes that the referendum would be held on Christmas eve which it absolute won't. And this in itself assumes they give up on every other avenue now. Not in September, the 1st October, or even late in October. It just won't happen at all.

16/1 shots win. I mean, I've got Lancashire in the T20 at 14s. I wouldn't want to bet on any of the outcomes but if you do consider that one you'll be better off giving the cash to charity. You can get 12/1 that there will be a second referendum at any time. 16/1 is a dreadful bet.

I'm going to have to stop typing. It's such an awful offering from a bookie it's angering me!

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1 hour ago, TheKingInTheNorth said:

To put the above bet in perspective here’s the betfair exchange odds on the straight will we or won’t we leave two runner race...

which is the better bet?

1DFB3DD3-B0AE-4CE2-9BEA-6AD5594D3BD2.jpeg

Noiis obviouslythe better bet in that scenario because even leaving with a final 72 hour extension to iron out final kinks of a deal is still a winner.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, DaveM said:

Noiis obviouslythe better bet in that scenario because even leaving with a final 72 hour extension to iron out final kinks of a deal is still a winner.

I agree with both responses but it’s what bookies do, appear to offer ‘tasty odds’ on something when in fact it’s nothing of the sort!

The last really big mistake I think I saw layers make was to offer EVS on Altior to win the 2018 Champion Chase on the day of the race. That was a truly awful error as despite the lack of prep and an injury scare it was obvious to anyone who knows one end of a horse from the other that barring a fall he would on all known form demolish his rivals, which of course he did.... Kerching!

Edited by TheKingInTheNorth

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17 hours ago, StopandStep said:

No deal on 31st is a good bet in my opinion, but there's a lot of elected politicians who don't like democracy. I'd bet on no deal, but not too much.

Not at events, especially looking at the betfair odds. Despite all Johnson's talk he is desperate to get a deal.

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19 hours ago, Stepandstop said:

I’m looking to invest some of next months wages on a bet for leaving the EU

I don’t no much about politics what bet do people recommend?437D7F90-613F-45A6-9DF1-AD9162C8D283.thumb.png.50d5996a0cbb4a519d178d5ff1d60dd3.png

They are all terrible value! I would take the evens at betfair to leave before 1st Nov, for better value

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To be honest I wouldn't trust a politician with a dead dog 

And let's tell Brussels f#ck off stick your deal and just leave on Halloween 

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32 minutes ago, fatcabs said:

To be honest I wouldn't trust a politician with a dead dog 

And let's tell Brussels f#ck off stick your deal and just leave on Halloween 

Well technically our deal, the one Borris backed in the commons 😏

 

Borris may appear a lovable buffoon, but he's a calculated politician. I wouldn't be surprised if he winds down the clock (for a no deal) which forces labour to call a non confidence/election. Then either forms a pact with the brexit party (or relies on the progressive vote being split) campaigns on "Brorris saviour of Brexit and voice of the people." Wins a decent majority and gets a deal that looks very similar to TMs deal through parliament.  

Now let me write all that out on my betting slip and nip down to ladbrokes. 😅😅

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, The crisp man said:

Not at events, especially looking at the betfair odds. Despite all Johnson's talk he is desperate to get a deal.

My favourite was iirc Cue Card in the Gold Cup about 6 years ago. Might have been a different race. So rarely do the horses I can't be certain. Something stupid like 13/2 in what save for a fall was a 2 horse race. 1/4 odds top 3! Took the each way as a free bet for small profit or win for mega bucks!

Edited by DaveM

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