The psycology of front end wins

[Skippy888]

I was reading a thread on Reddit about scratchcards recently. One guy mentioned that he worked in a newsagents and sold a lot of cards. He had many regulars who would but £5 worth and scratch them in the shop. He had noticed that new games tended to pay once out then drop off very quickly . Does that sound familiar? The psychology behind it is that you see something you have not tried before and play it a bit and you get a bit win! Wow! I must play this more you think to yourself. Little do you know that it's only the first batch that's loaded up with winners and you chase and chase that original big win eventually putting back way more than you won. 

Sound familiar? Wonder why Fat Rabbit never pays any more, or Chocolates? Well they have you hooked. 

Congrats on the win on Royale with Cheese Darren, please don't try to repeat it - not going to happen and you know it! 

Play new games, and don't try to repeat a big win on a new game the % RTP are now really low to pay back all those big wins it payed out early. 

 

 

[DaveM]

The lottery publishes the number of prizes for each tier on each scratchcard game that are claimed and not so it would be easy to track in you were that inclined to know for sure

[Skippy888]

Yes they publish 'overall' prizes but not those paid month by month. If they published month by month it old be very reveling methinks

[Skippy888]

Happy to take 2:1 bet that Darren does not repeat his 'big win' £2000+ in next 10plays of the game and ends up negative.

 

:)

any takers?

[Stormy]

It's not beyond the bounds of possibility. They may front end selling winning scratch cards and even hold back some jackpot scratch cards until towards the end of the campaign. For instance if there were 4x 250k jackpot wins in a campaign and they all got won early on, it is a bit misleading to continue to market/sell cards prompting a 250k win which can no longer be won.

As a slot player (Corals mainly), the characteristics of some slots definitely change (original Rocky nowadays rarely offers mighty mick in bonus and the expanding Chief one which nowadays mostly plays the crappy Totem Pole bonus).  Given the RTP's don't change, makes me wonder if they are set up as loss leaders when new for a few weeks. Burn'em up 777's is another one, nowadays it is much more difficult to get full lines up in the feature than a few years ago, yet RTP is the same I have the video's to prove it, so unless I was on the most amazingly lucky run...

 

[DaveM]

On 1/1/2022 at 10:38 PM, Skippy888 said:

Yes they publish 'overall' prizes but not those paid month by month. If they published month by month it old be very reveling methinks

Edited. Not linking right on mobile

Edited January 4, 2022 by DaveM

[DaveM]

This should work. While they don't publish month by month you can get the launch date of every scratch card and if you check regularly, say once a week or month or whatever timescale you desire, you can compile the data yourself to see if there is a boas to the game release date.

Use this link

https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/games/gamestore/scratchcards?icid=-:bm:-:mdg:gs:scprizes:in:co

To follow something like £100k a year for 20 Years. Launched December 2021 (can't find a precise date) and currently all top prizes unclaimed

 

[DaveM]

Another example. £150k purple launched October 21 and 8 of the 9 top prizes unclaimed

[Senna]

I've played rainbow riches pots of gold from the start, and it has never given me a decent pot bonus, the best wins were 150x twice and 100x once and the rest were all bronze pots :( 

[JohnBrown]

Thanks for this interesting information!