Same old story

[Mentholdan]

Here's my lucky 15 for tonight, our selections all came second, one got beat half a length and the other 3 were all beaten in a photo finish😭😭😭

4 winners would have paid about 8.5k

An each way bet would have paid around £160 but I would have had to double the stake. 

When I'm having a bad run I tend to question my selection methods so I must be doing something right, almost. 

[StopandStep]

Quote

When I'm having a bad run I tend to question my selection methods

What are your selection methods? Whenever I go to the races (I have no clue about horses) I pick ones with medium odds so it's not too unlikely not to win, but also returns something half decent if it does. 

[Mentholdan]

17 minutes ago, StopandStep said:

What are your selection methods? Whenever I go to the races (I have no clue about horses) I pick ones with medium odds so it's not too unlikely not to win, but also returns something half decent if it does. 

Wow, now there's a question, how much time do we have. OK let's make a start, unless it's a classic race, the Guineas, Oaks, Derby or St Leger, or a group race, then I hardly ever bet in a race unless all the runners have run at least 3 times in their career, the reason is that you have form lines to work on, a horse that has never had a race could be anything from a world beater to a donkey. Just because a horse was bought for a 7 figure sum as a yearling, doesn't mean it could beat a horse bought for £500 out of a selling race. It should of course but until it sets foot on a racetrack you never know. The ground on which a horse shows its best form is of the utmost importance, some prefer it soft, some run better on firm ground, some only ever show their best form when the ground is like bog?? I never worry if a horse has had a very long break, say 9 months off the track, some horses have been known to win their first race of the season every year for 3 or 4 years but then win nothing for the rest of the season. Some horses may have won say 8 or 9 times in their career but when you check their past form they only ever win when they're running on a left handed track, others are the opposite and obviously some win going in either direction. Some horses are sprinters, some middle distance runners and some prefer marathons, no different from human athletes. Male horses are generally more powerful than females in their first 2 seasons of racing as two and three years old horses, this levels out some when they reach the age of four and upwards. Imagine say Usain Bolt running in a race against Mo Farrah, Bolt would win all the 100 metre races and Farrah would win all the 5000 metre races, absolutely no question. Now let's imagine  them running against each other in a 100 metre race but with  another athlete running in the same race and the other athletes trips up and accidentally falls in the path of Bolt and brings him down??

I never worry too much about the jockey but obviously a more experienced jockey would have some advantage over a jockey new to race riding. One of the main things I look for is an in form trainer, generally, the top trainers stay in form all season but the lesser trainers tend to have periods of rich veins of form and then quiet times for a while, an in form trainer is a massive plus for me. So if the trainer of the horse you want to back isn't in the top ten trainers list check to see how many winners he has had to runners in the last month or so. 

Horses for courses is never more evident than in the Grand National, I would never back a horse in the National that hasn't won a race at Aintree "over the National fences" not so much the distance but experience over the fences is so important. So in this very brief summary I would suggest you bet on a horse that has won over the race distance before, has it won at that track before? If it hasn't, has it a least won going the same way round as that track, left or right handed. Is the trainer in form? Check his record of winners to runners in the last month. Check the going, if it's soft, has it won or at least finished 2nd or 3rd on soft ground before? . If its an all weather track, has it run well on That surface before? "The all weather tracks have similar, but not the same surfaces" if you're at the track, watch all the horses walking round the paddock before the race, when your horse walks, does his rear foot step on the same spot that his front foot just left, look at its arse and look at just the same as you might look at a woman's rear end!!! Does it move well, does the horses tail swing left to right like a pendulum, does it look alert? do its eyes look bright, and I kid you not, does it have unusually LONG EARS? and are they sticking up like antenna and flicking back and forth, this is a very good sign. If its "whinneying" a lot in the parade ring this is a bad sign, is it sweating and covered in lather down its neck and between its legs? that's another bad sign. Forget about the price of the horse, he doesn't know what price he is. Listen for the announcement as to which horse won the prize for being best turned out, its amazing how often they win. If your watching on TV and can bet via your phone or app, listen to the pundit "literally at the last seconds before the race starts" they like to tip winners and often get inside info about certain horses but won't tell the viewer until most of the Horses are in the starting stalls or are almost ready to jump off in a national hunt race. Ignore newspaper tipsters, if they were any good they wouldn't be giving tips, they'd be on the beach in Barbados. IF A HORSE HAS PRODUCED A CERTAIN LEVEL OF FORM IT IS QUITE LIKELY TO REPEAT THAT LEVEL OF FORM AGAIN IN THE FUTURE, NOT NECESSARILY THE NEXT TIME IT RUNS BUT WHEN MOST OF THE RACE STATS LINE UP THE SAME AGAIN.

There, that should get you started. 

If anyone has any questions or queries regarding horseracing just ask and I'll answer the best I can. 

 

[Stepandstop]

I haven’t a clue about horses usually just look at the form guide and pick a well known jockey

what makes me mad is the wife who picks horses in the grand national because she likes the name of the horse and usually wins 😢😢😢😢