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TRUMP V BIDEN - General Discussion - Stop and Step

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They thought that about Hilary....

Still, I’d be surprised if Biden doesn’t win. Trump has been humorous at time but whilst I’m not a huge fan of Biden he is at least a “real” politician and would hopefully be a far more stable and effective leader. 

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This is the exchange market on Betfair. The numbers are shocking. Betfair allows you to see each and every bet placed via this graph and check out the total bet. 

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Edited by Skippy888
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Biden's got it in the bag in a fair election but would back at those odds with the skullduggery that has been going on with regards to the funding cuts for postal service and not counting ballots in places like Wisconsin if the funding starved postal service can't get postal votes in on time!

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I was just reading about this on odds checked, as much as I don't want trump to win, I still think he probably can and may do so.

Interesting article on Betfair suggesting a good punt is Back Trump to win 5 key states; Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Texas and Ohio @ 13/5. Which apparently he really needs to win (though I don't understand the electoral college system).😕

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It doesn't sound like a good bet to me. Of the 16 polls pubished so far today, yesterday, and the day before Biden is ahead in 14 of them for Florida. Of the 2 Trump is winning one is the highly reputable polling organisation 'surveymonkey' haha and the other is a company called 'Swayable'. Never heard of them but leading political analysis site fivethirtyeight.com grades both of the latter organisations D for methodology/quality of the survey

For Georgia the last 11 polls published back to 22 October have Biden winning. Trump had a 10 percentage point margin of victory in Iowa in 2016 and the polls are showing mixed rules - some for Trump some for Biden so if Biden is even getting close to winning places like Iowa there is now way Trump can win Georgia (5.1 percentage point difference) and Floria (1.2)

Ohio had Trump 8 points ahead in 2016 and by the end of September Biden was a ahead drifting to neck and neck mid-Sept with Trump pulling back ahead as per early September. Texas was the big fish. If Biden could have flipped Texas it was game set and match Democrats. He probably won't. I think Dems are actually leading so far but of the day voting Reps will keep the state Red. He won by 9 points in 2016 and is only 1 point ahead in average polls now.

The vote swing to Biden is just far too universal and the most telling thing about Georgia and Texas is that unlike so many states in the US in 2016 they actually shifted AWAY from the republicans so they didn't embrace Trump the fist time and what has happened since I don't see them shifting back. They might go go Dem enough to flip but they are going towards the Dems. Texas has an increasingly young and Latino population versus where it has been previously so its not as far fetched as it sounds for it to turn but I just don't think it will.

I would want at least 3/1 that he wins any 4 of those 5 to be honest..

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To be honest, I don't know enough about us politics nor the polls to say otherwise, only from what I read implied he would need to secure those "battleground" states to win the Whitehouse. Which would mean 13/5 "trumping" (sorry) the 15/8  you'd get on him outright. Though if that was the case everyone could take the 13/5 and lay him outright for a tidy profit, which doesn't really make sense.

 

Anyway, I hope he doesn't win

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1 hour ago, The crisp man said:

To be honest, I don't know enough about us politics nor the polls to say otherwise, only from what I read implied he would need to secure those "battleground" states to win the Whitehouse. Which would mean 13/5 "trumping" (sorry) the 15/8  you'd get on him outright. Though if that was the case everyone could take the 13/5 and lay him outright for a tidy profit, which doesn't really make sense.

 

Anyway, I hope he doesn't win

That rationale seems to be what the write-up says. If he can't win the presidency without those states then back him at the higher odds. Of course, it is not literally true that he can't win without those just that it is implausible - if the Republicans won somewhere like NY or Cali  then he wouldn't need those states but they ain't doing that! Makes sense to do that bet as a way to get better value than other bet - I just don't think any bet that has Trump winning at the ballot box is value. Annoyingly you can 'technically' get better odds still on that bet although not actually. Hills have 13/10 Trump wins the 4 excluding Florida and 8/11 he wins Florida as a single. Unfortunately it won't let you have it as a double.

Now, if you could have a bet on Trump losing but having the Supreme Court overturn his defeat that would be good value because he'll definitely try something that will endanger a civil war if he loses.

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Two factors have it a BIDEN win for me 

1) No one says "Biden is a nasty piece of work" - Everyone, even trump say he's a nice guy. Russia and Facebook did a hatchet job on Hillary the freedom Russia and foreign influencers had last time will happen to some degree but I doubt very much it will have the same effect.

2) In all the interviews I have not seen one person who in 2016 voted for Hillary and now says they will vote for trump. But plenty who have switched to Biden from trump last time.

Yes Dave - he will try to declare the vote a fraud. On Fox News (a pro trump TV station) they are not publishing real polls - they are not telling his supporters that he is way behind in the polls. Quite the opposite, they are saying he's winning. They want his followers to be shocked and outraged when he loses....'how can this be? FOX said he was winning?" they want them to think the Dems have stolen the election, and take to the streets AR15 in hand 

It may be a very traumatic transition as even if he loses he may still be there for the next three months. Scheming, covering his tracks, pardoning everyone, causing as much trouble as possible and stealing money whilst he thinks no one is looking, he is actually in a lot of debt and needs every penny or cent he can purloin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I would expect that the white house becomes a focus of attention and protest when he refuses to admit defeat - protesters will flock there shouting 'get him out' and thus his supporters will turn up - probably armed - does DC have an open carry law? 

It's f&&king madness that you can go to a protest in a capital with an semi automatic assault rifle and a bullet proof vest in tow.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8904169/Fortress-White-House-Crews-begin-building-non-scalable-fence-complex.html

https://www.gunstocarry.com/gun-laws-state/washington-dc-gun-laws/

 

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